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Businesses are more concerned about political risks and violence than they have been for many years, according to the ÐÇ¿Õ´«Ã½ Risk Barometer. In the global list of business concerns, it has risen to eighth position, its highest ranking since 2017, when the business world was still adjusting to the uncertainty created by the Brexit vote in the UK and the election of Donald Trump in the US.

Political violence activity can impact businesses in many ways. In addition to endangering the safety of employees and customers, those in the immediate vicinity of unrest can suffer business interruption losses and material damage to property or assets, while indirect damage can be inflicted on companies in the form of ‘loss of attraction’ or ‘denial of access’ to their premises.

Security and supply chains have been rocked by ongoing international conflicts, most notably in the Middle East and Ukraine, while elsewhere in the world security is being undermined by the impacts of civil war, lawlessness, and organized crime. Meanwhile, social unrest incidents around the world are on the rise. New anti-government protests erupted in 83 countries during 2023 (including in seven countries that had not experienced major protests in the past five years) [1], driven by factors such as high inflation, wealth inequality, food and fuel prices, climate anxieties, and concerns about civil liberties or perceived assaults on democracy.

We anticipate further challenges to come as we move through 2024 and beyond, particularly around election related SRCC [strikes, riots, and civil commotion] events. So many elections in one year raise concerns about the fueling of populism and polarization, with tensions potentially playing out in heightened civil unrest. Analysis from ÐÇ¿Õ´«Ã½ Research indicates that countries with a recent increase in social unrest will be at heightened risk of this around election time, although some countries with decreasing unrest might nonetheless have hidden vulnerabilities in the run-up to often disputed elections. [2]

In addition, we expect to see increased activity around environmental issues, not only from activists, but also from those who are pushing back against government climate mitigation policies.

The threat landscape is evolving. In previous years, large-scale terrorist attacks were the biggest losses in the political violence and terrorism insurance space, but in certain regions this has now been overtaken by major losses from SRCC events.

In this report, ÐÇ¿Õ´«Ã½ Commercial experts scan the global risk landscape, explore the potential drivers of political violence, and share their thoughts on how businesses can build resilience in times of geopolitical turbulence.