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ǿմý Risk Barometer 2022 -
Rank 5: Changes in legislation and regulation

Expert risk article | January 2022
Legislation never sleeps and despite manypromises to reduce red tape, new rules andregulations proliferate. 2022 will be noexception, particularly in the areas of big techand sustainability.
The most important business risks for the next 12 months and beyond, based on the insight of 2,650 risk management experts from 89 countries and territories.

In data and big tech, there is a global raceunfolding to curb anti-competitive practices.In Europe, the DMA (Digital Markets Act)will come to life; in the US, a dozen techbills will make their way through Congress;and in China, the crackdown on big internetcompanies is already in full swing.

Although it remains to be seen whether thesenew rules and initiatives will lead to realchange, 2022, at least, holds the promise for afairer and better-regulated data economy, saysLudovic Subran, Chief Economist at ǿմý.

Ranking history:

2021: 5 (19%)

2020: 3 (27%)

2019: 4 (27%)

2018: 5 (21%)

2017: 5 (24%)

The same can be said about sustainability.The EU taxonomy for sustainable activitiesregulation takes effect for the environmentalobjectives of climate change mitigation andadaptation, providing a common dictionaryfor sustainability criteria and thus effectivelyenabling comparability of sustainabilityperformance. “Given Europe’s clout when itcomes to regulation, 2022 could, in retrospect,be seen as the year that ended ‘greenwashing’,”says Subran.

But the elephant in the room is the US-Chinageopolitical rivalry, contaminating all sorts ofeconomic activity, from trade to technologyand investment. And 2022 could easily seefurther deterioration, with the US headingfor mid-term elections and China for an allimportantCommunist Party Congress.

The rising tensions around Taiwan are aharbinger for future conflict. However, thesurprising US-China announcement at theCOP26 climate summit to boost climatecooperation hints at the opposite: “Are wewitnessing an early thaw in the US-Chinastandoff? The Chinese economy will not be inthe best shape, the US economy continues tosuffer from bouts of inflation: 2022, thus, mightbe the year of tentative common efforts tobuild a better, functioning relationship. It wouldbe the most welcome surprise,” says Subran.

Investor and shareholder action is increasinglyfocused on environmental social and governance(ESG) issues, and companies are challenged by thegrowing raft of regulation and guidance in manyterritories, leading to tougher disclosure and reportingrules, according to the ǿմý Risk Barometer.Respondents rank cyber security resilience astheir major ESG priority (see graphic), driven bythe growth and severity of cyber-attacks, and anincrease in data security regulations.

“In the past, it was mainly technology companies thatwere assessed on cyber security resilience, but thesedays, businesses across a range of sectors are subjectto such scrutiny,” explains Michael Bruch, GlobalHead of Liability Risk Consulting/ESG at AGCS.

“Increasingly, cyber security considerations areincorporated into the ESG risk-analysis frameworksof data providers, who look into companies’ dataprotectionand information security practices toevaluate their preparedness for cyber crime.”

Climate change is another major ESG presence onthe list with respondents ranking it as their secondtop ESG concern. This should be no surprise so soonafter COP26, the UN Climate Change Conference,when building a decarbonized future rose high onthe agenda. Net-zero commitments made by theprivate sector were unparalleled, reflecting theemphasis businesses now place on climate risk andtransitioning to a low-carbon economy.

Within climate change, resource depletion is anemerging risk that will likely receive increasingattention in 2022. Thehas identified biodiversity loss as an existentialglobal threat, stating: “$44trn of economic valuegeneration – more than half of the world’s total GDP– is moderately or highly dependent on nature andits services and is therefore exposed to nature loss.” [1]Biodiversity loss can result in natural catastrophessuch as droughts and floods, the disappearance ofpollinators, or the collapse of fishing or agriculturalyields. The construction, agricultural, and food andbeverage sectors are most likely to bear the brunt, butthe impact on secondary and tertiary industries, andtheir supply chains, should not be underestimated.

Top four answers

Source: ǿմý Risk Barometer 2022
Figures represent the percentage of answers of all participants whoresponded (2,650). Figures do not add up to 100% as up to three riskscould be selected.

“Regulation and global standards aroundbiodiversity are rising,” says Bruch. This year, theTaskforce on Nature-Related Financial Disclosures(TNFD) is expected to launch a framework fororganizations to report and act on nature-relatedrisks, while French financial institutions will berequired to disclose biodiversity-related risksalongside climate-related risks, as well as theirstrategies for reducing biodiversity impacts.

If global warming is to be kept below 1.5°C,nature-based solutions will play a significant role,according to the and the International Union forthe Conservation of Nature (IUCN) [2]. This will meanprotecting ecosystems from loss and degradation,restoring those already degraded, and sustainablymanaging working lands such as fields and forests.

“As part of their net-zero commitments, companieswill not only need to develop and implementstrategies to decarbonize, they will also have tomanage their impacts on the land and the naturalresources they use,” Bruch concludes.

[1] World Economic Forum, 2020: Nature Risk Rising: Why theCrisis Engulfing Nature Matters for Business and the Economy
[2] United Nations Environment Programme and InternationalUnion for Conservation of Nature, 2021: Nature-basedsolutions for climate change mitigation, Nairobi and Gland

Picture: Shutterstock

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