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Businesses and their supply chains face considerable��geopolitical risks with war in Ukraine, conflict in the Middle��East, and ongoing tensions around the world. Political risk��in 2023 was at a five-year high, with some 100 countries��considered at high or extreme risk of civil unrest [1]. Further��unrest is expected in 2024 as economic gloom continues,��particularly in debt-crisis countries, while protestors calling��for action about a number of different causes will aim to��cause more disruptive events.

The year was marred by multiple protests in France��against pension reforms and the murder of teenager��Nahel Merzouk, which led to intense violence, property��damage and looting. The continued rise of populist and��far-right parties in Europe resulted in electoral success��in the Netherlands and Slovakia, reinforcing the political��shift of 2022, when Italy elected a party with neo-fascist��roots, Hungary re-elected Viktor Orbán, and the far-right��Sweden Democrats took over 20% of the votes in a��general election.

Turmoil has also been seen in numerous African countries,��notes Srdjan Todorovic, Head of Political Violence and��Hostile Environment Solutions at �ǿմ�ý Commercial,��driven by the September 2022 coup in Burkina Faso, and��further successful coups in Niger and Gabon in 2023. While��these coups have been relatively peaceful, Sudan is rapidly��escalating into civil war, mainly in its capital Khartoum.��Economic difficulties are challenging many countries,��in particular Tunisia, which teetered on the edge of��violence as President Saied continued to rule through��decree and without a Parliament.

Latin America is a region that commonly sees big shifts in��politics and pre- and post-electoral violence, and 2023 was��no exception. Brazil experienced an attack on its National��Congress building after the re-election of the leftist Lula��da Silva and ousting of Jair Bolsonaro, while Argentina��saw mass protests against the newly elected populist,��Javier Milei. In contrast, Guatemala saw supporters of��the president elect, Bernardo Arévalo, protesting against��institutions halting his inauguration. While these are mostly��intra-state issues, potential cross-border violence could be��ignited with Venezuela’s territorial dispute with Guyana.

The defining moment of 2023 was the Hamas attack on��Israel and the subsequent war in Gaza. This has not only��led to thousands of innocent deaths in Gaza but has also��increased pro-Palestinian and pro-Israeli protests globally.��The conflict has quickly escalated beyond its defined��borders with the pro-Hamas entities attacking shipping��and launching drones and ballistic missiles towards Israel.

Amid all this conflict, 2024 is also a record-breaking election��year, when as much as 50% of the world’s population could��go to the polls, including in India, Russia, the US, and the��UK. So many elections raise concerns about the fueling of��populism and polarization which may manifest in increasing��civil unrest activity. Disillusionment with ruling incumbents��and concerns over the fairness of elections, fueled by social��media, could also ignite unrest in certain territories.

“We anticipate continued challenges to come,” says��Todorovic. “In addition to increased risk of election-related��SRCC [strikes, riots and civil commotion], we see clear trends��in increased risk of terrorism in Western Europe and North��America. This is primarily driven by the Israel and Gaza war��leading to a radicalization of certain parts of the population��in these regions.

“Further, with more states or governments��asserting their territorial claims over others, as well as��claims of border insecurity, the risk of pre-emptive cross-border��wars is increasing in certain regions through 2024.”